Fantasy football drafts are a theater of madness. Every year, the same players get drafted as if they’re immune to the laws of physics, aging, and the cruel whims of coaching decisions. This year, the madness has reached a fever pitch with wide receivers whose ADP (Average Draft Position) defies logic. Let me tell you why this is happening—and why it’s a disaster waiting to unfold.
Take A.J. Brown. He’s being drafted as a top-7 pick, yet his stats last season were a cautionary tale. His yards per target dropped 20%, and his EPA (Expected Points Added) per target tanked. At 29, he’s entering the twilight of his career, and his knees are betraying him. The Rams didn’t even want him after seeing his medicals. But here’s the kicker: the Eagles drafted him, and the market is ignoring his decline. Why? Because people are chasing narratives, not numbers. They think Drake Maye will somehow elevate Brown, but Maye’s schedule is brutal, and Brown’s role as an alpha WR is gone. This is the problem with groupthink—everyone assumes the same QB will fix everything, even when the math doesn’t add up.
Then there’s Emeka Egbuka. His ADP is WR14, but his performance last season was a rollercoaster. He went from WR11 to WR36 in the second half of the year, then finished at WR82. That’s not a decline—it’s a collapse. Yet, the market is treating him like a rising star. Why? Because fantasy footballers have short memories. They forget he was 125th in broken tackle rate and 64th in EPA per target. Baker Mayfield isn’t Peyton Manning, and Egbuka’s efficiency is still abysmal. The only thing that matters here is that the market is rewarding mediocrity with early picks. It’s a perfect storm of optimism bias and fear of missing out.
Ladd McConkey is another case of misplaced confidence. He’s ranked WR19, but he underperformed compared to Quentin Johnston, who’s reviled by fans despite outscoring him. McConkey’s yards per target were a dismal 7.4, way below the league average. The Chargers’ offensive line is a disaster, but that doesn’t excuse his inefficiency. And here’s the twist: Johnston is back, with a guaranteed contract through 2027. Drafting McConkey over Johnston is like buying a lottery ticket with a broken machine. You’re hoping for a miracle, but the odds are against you.
Mike Evans is the poster child for why age is a killer in the NFL. At 32, he’s one of the worst receivers in the league, with a yards per target stat in the 9th percentile. People compare him to Davante Adams, but Adams didn’t turn into a liability at that age. Evans’ decline is inevitable, yet the market is still drafting him as a mid-tier WR. Why? Because the 49ers’ passing game is a myth. Under Kyle Shanahan, they’ve never created a top WR season. Evans is a cautionary tale of why you shouldn’t trust a player’s production without looking at the system around them.
Brian Thomas’ 2025 season was a complete disaster. He went from WR47 to WR30 in PPR points per game, but that was a fluke. His yards per target jumped to 14.2, which is too deep for a WR. Trevor Lawrence and Thomas have zero chemistry, and Thomas’ route-running is a mess. The market is clinging to his 2024 breakout like it’s a lifeline, but the new coach and QB mean his 2024 stats are meaningless. Thomas is a project, not a sure thing, and yet he’s being drafted as if he’s a lock.
This isn’t just about bad drafting—it’s about the psychology of the game. People draft players because they’re names, not because of their stats. They chase narratives, not data. They think a new coach or QB will fix everything, even when the evidence says otherwise. The result is a draft where the most overpriced players are the ones with the highest risk and the lowest reward. If you’re drafting in this market, you’re either incredibly lucky or incredibly foolish. The real question is: when will the masses finally learn that ADP isn’t a guarantee, but a gamble?
